This season hasn’t gone as planned, but as the expression goes, even though it’s no longer early, it’s not late, either. There is plenty of season left, which makes the grind of baseball’s marathon season an ally, rather than an enemy.

The Orioles have had a frustrating month of May, going 6-9, and are limping through what is a very home-friendly schedule.

So the O’s can turn it around. But what needs to happen? Plenty. Here are four items:

 

Matt Wieters Must Get Healthy

A common refrain among apologists in the offseason was that the Orioles didn’t need to pursue high-profile free agents, because getting Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, and Chris Davis back from injury/suspension would be like adding three All-Stars to the roster.

Funny thing about that. They have yet to add Wieters back to the roster. The new target date for Wieters’ return is June 4th. Whether the Orioles catcher will be ready on that date remains to be seen, but the real question is this: which Matt Wieters will show up when he does come back?

Will he be the same Matt Wieters who has turned out to be a defensive whiz, but underwhelming offensive player? Sure, he’s got 20+ HR power, but his wOBA and WRC+ have been in steady decline since 2011.

Will he be the guy that came out of the gate hot in 2014, and lit up opposing pitching in his 112 at bats, before hitting the DL. It’s unlikely, but it would be welcome.

It’s also possible he’ll be the Matt Wieters who is rusty after having been on the shelf for the better part of a year. Maybe Wieters will need some time to regain his timing and re-adjust to Major League pitching.

Even that would be OK. Wieters’ return will not only represent the Orioles regaining a former All-Star, but it will also mean that the team gets the best out of Caleb Joseph. Joseph has performed admirably in Wieters’ absence, but at times has been exposed. Reducing Joseph’s responsibility (even 50-50) should keep him fresh and continue to allow him to pleasantly surprise us.

 

Chris Tillman Must Return to Form

Chris Tillman may not be an “ace” (loaded word alert), but he is the Orioles’ #1 starter. Tillman was one of the jewels of the Erik Bedard trade, and has backed it up by becoming a solid Major League starter – sometimes dominant.

Tillman is 40-21 since 2012. OK, I realize pitcher wins is a horrific stat, but when you consider that he is one of those Orioles starters who defies logic, it’s enough shorthand for the results. Tillman’s FIP averaged 4.14 from 2012-2014, which is markedly unimpressive. But his LOB% (76.2%) and K-BB% (11.6) were above average.

In short, on this ace-less staff, he’s been the top dog. He has struggled from time to time. Tillman has had issues in the first couple of innings, admitting that he has trouble getting loose. Let’s not forget that one-inning disaster in Pittsburgh last year. Tillman can struggle with command, and when it’s off, it’s way off. Tillman is averaging just over 5IP per start, and giving up almost four runs per abbreviated start.

If this team is going to be better than it has shown in May, Tillman is going to have to show consistency and command. It starts with giving the Orioles innings, and limiting the walks (his BB/9 has nearly doubled over his 2012-2014 average).

For a while, the “stopper” was the off day. It needs to be Tillman.

 

Corner Outfielders Must Contribute

While working on this post, I realized that Matt Kremnitzer handled this quite succinctly in his guest spot on masnsports.com. As Matt notes:

O’s left fielders currently have a combined wRC+ of 85 (21st in the majors). Their right fielders have combined for a wRC+ of 82 (24th in the majors).

I think that tells the tale pretty clearly. Whether it be Delmon Young, David Lough, Alejandro De Aza, Travis Snider, or Steve Pearce (before his time as an “invented second baseman), the entire corner outfield platoon went cold at the same time.

When we start wondering how Nolan Reimold is doing in the minors, or consider bringing up Chris Parmalee to inject some offense into the lackluster lineup, you know there is a problem.

 

Chris Davis Must Reduce His K Rate

It hasn’t all been bad news for Chris Davis. His wOBA is about average (.327), as is his WRC+ (106). His LD% is consistent with his career average. He’s hitting more ground balls, but strangely (blame the luck dragon?) he hasn’t been as victimized by the shift as he was in 2014. Davis has eight HRs in this young season, and his .242 ISO shows that he still has devastating power.

Here’s the rub: he’s been his own worst enemy. Chris Davis has all the strikeouts in the land. He currently sits at 39.1%, which puts him on pace to have enough strikeouts to cancel Christmas.

Put simply, Davis is doing enough of the things that made him successful in 2012 and 2013 to tread water, but the Orioles need much more from him. The lineup cannot stop after Adam Jones, and an effective Chris Davis will make the top of the lineup that much better.

I’d like to see what happens when Chris Davis stops getting himself out, and forces the opposition to do it.