Biding My Time: Orioles Plate Discipline in 2015
For the past several years, the Baltimore Orioles have demonstrated and aggressiveness at that plate that many have had issue. This aggressiveness was seen throughout the lineup, but most fans would focus on Adam Jones. Jones ability to swing at balls out of the zone has been an issue for his entire career. However, that plate discipline also translated to good results in terms of offensive production at the expense of the walk.
During the post-season, Adam Jones had the following comment:
“I just think that what I do in the regular season, I think I need to cut back a little bit more in the postseason, the aggression in the regular season. I think it intensifies when the postseason comes on, the strike zone is smaller. Every pitch is that more of importance. And you’ve got to lock in better. It’s the same game, it’s just the focus has to be stronger,” Jones said.
During the offseason, the Orioles hired a new hitting coach, Scott Coolbaugh, to replace Jim Presley. Coolbaugh was commented upon his hiring as saying the following about Jones and Schoop whom have historically struggled with plate discipline:
“You don’t want to take away anything that makes him comfortable,” Coolbaugh said. “Just try to maybe eliminate and take away some anxiety so you can eliminate some of those bad at-bats and keep the consistency going, because if we can do that, maybe there’s a few more walks that get thrown in there.”
However, Coolbaugh from his time with the Texas Rangers has shown a very aggressive approach. Baseball Prospectus looked at the value of certain hitting coaches and Coolbaugh ranked in the following areas:
Coming into the season, I expected the Orioles to continue their aggressive approach and maybe be even worse than years prior due to the loss of Nick Markakis. With a small sample set so far into the 2015, I decided to take a quick snapshot of the results thus far.
O-Swing% is a plate discipline measurement that examines a hitter’s approach to pitches outside the zone. This generally over time can indicate an aggressiveness at the plate. Those players that show this aggressive approach often see more pitches outside the strike zone (lower Zone%).
Adam Jones in this data has so far in 2015 potentially modified his plate discipline. However, Jonathan Schoop mentioned by Coolbaugh specifically has gone through a dramatic change in the first nine games. Camden Depot had noted a potential change to his approach during the postseason last year. So far in 2015, it appears as if that trend has continued with Schoop. However, the walks have not improved dramatically, nor have the strikeouts reduced. Explanation? Schoop is instead generating better opportunities with himself as a batter being ahead in the count yielding more pitches to be thrown in the zone, specifically fastballs. Schoop has improved against fastballs to the tune of 5.70 to -1.23 in 2015 for wFA/100. He also has seen greater success against breaking balls as he is gaining better recognition of them and driving them with power.
Manny Machado and Caleb Joseph have also shown a drastic change in O-Swing% during this time. While Machado has struggled with a .241 wOBA (52 wRC+), his BABIP is out of whack with a .167 to his career average of .313. This is bound to change soon, but in the process Machado has raised his BB% from 5.6% to 11.1% early on in the season. Caleb Joseph has been destroying the ball lately, but is due for regression with a .474 BABIP. However, he has improved his plate discipline yielding a BB% improvement from 6.2% to 11.1% and K% reduction 25.1 to 18.5%.
Not every thing is coming up roses for the Orioles with poor plate discipline so far from Chris Davis and Delmon Young. Davis is currently 4th in MLB in Swing Strike % (20.5%) and 29th in MLB for O-Swing%. While Jones is near in terms of O-Swing%, Davis swing mechanics right now are much more of an issue that Jones who is only posting a 9.8% SwStk%. Davis obviously has to be frustrated and so must the Orioles with this performance. The Orioles were relying on Coolbaugh and his history with Davis to cure his woes. However, the start of the season has been much worse than even last year yielding no walks and an increase in K% from 33% to 45.5%.
The data for plate discipline is quite young and needs additional time to stabilize. However, Russell Carleton indicate that data for plate discipline can stabilize in under 40 PA. We should keep an eye on the players mentioned in the article to see if the trends shown so far match what we see in June/July.