Budding Trade Deadline Romance

The MLB non-waiver trade deadline is a crazy time. Take, for instance, Houston starter Bud Norris being held out of Tuesday’s O’s/’Stros game because he was on the verge of being dealt. Possibly into the opposing dugout.

Many Orioles fans view Norris as a viable option to upgrade the starting rotation, which has proven to be the 2013 club’s Achilles Heel. Sure, Norris looks attractive. As one of the few “real names” on a terrible Astros roster, and one with a sub-4.00 ERA, he’s a guy who looks like he fits the bill, at first glance.

But what if you look deeper?

Don’t look now, but Bud Norris’ career numbers indicate that he’s a solid #5 starter, and nothing more. Norris mows down righties, but struggles against left-handed hitters.  Case in point, if you throw out his four 2013 starts against the Angels (whose lineup consists mostly of right-handed hitters), his ERA balloons to 4.95. It’s unlikely that the AL East would be kind to him. Also consider that he’s averaged fewer than 6 innings per start, since 2010.

Bud Norris is having a pretty good year. As worthless as the pitcher win stat is, you have to throw his 9 losses out the window because he plays for such a terrible team. Likewise, you have to throw out his 3.93 ERA, because Camden Yards would expose his unsustainably low FB/HR rate (6.9%).

Norris would be a decent pickup for the Orioles, but not an impact one. That being the case, the organization cannot give into the pressure to part with too much talent, in order to get him. This is not a player you drop high-profile prospects for – not when you’re trying to get a marginal upgrade over Jason Hammel. Especially not when you have guys of similar caliber in AAA. Let’s face it: the only difference between Bud Norris and Zach Britton is that Britton is a lefty, and has yet to match Norris’ track record for being a league-average 5th starter.

Being in contention can make you feel all tingly. There’s no shame in that. But don’t be disappointed if the Orioles don’t pull the trigger on Norris before 4:00 today. It could be that the price was simply too high.