Double Play: Should the Orioles Have Traded Tommy Hunter?
When the trade deadline ended last Friday, the Orioles were buyers with the trade of Gerardo Parra. But on the same side, the Orioles sold off by trading Tommy Hunter for Junior Lake to the Chicago Cubs. This has led to two dissenting camps being formed on the Hunter trade. Should the Orioles have traded away a veteran reliever if they are competing for a playoff spot?
We offered an installment called Double Play. In this feature, we will provide two sides of an issue, trying to boil it down into two short, succinct arguments for each camp.
In this series, we have the following contributors:
- Fake Buck Showalter (@Fake_buck) arguing for keeping Tommy Hunter
- Dave Stevenson (@BmoreDaveS), Editor of Starsandsticks.com, arguing that it was time for the Orioles to move on past Tommy Hunter
Who Will Own It?
The Orioles Should Have Kept Tommy Hunter – by @Fake_Buck
How does trading Tommy Hunter make the Orioles better this year?
Tommy Hunter’s stats versus average for relief pitchers:
- ERA: 3.56 / 3.60
- BAA: .241 / .250
- WHIP: 1.16 / 1.26
- K/9: 6.4 / 8.67
We may have traded Tommy Hunter for Junior Lake, but for the purposes of this year’s roster he was traded to make room for Mychal Givens (since Lake was immediately sent down to AAA Norfolk he didn’t take his place on the 25 man roster). I don’t know if Givens will be better than Hunter. I hope he is. If we had been actively selling off pieces (something I would not have been against) or if this happened during the first couple of months of the season I would have been totally on board with this. Hell, if Hunter had been injured and wound up getting the Wally Pipp treatment when Givens replaced him I’d help Tommy pack his bags.
My point has been and continues to be that Tommy Hunter has been at LEAST average if not slightly better than average (the biggest knock on him is that he doesn’t have the strikeout numbers that a “power” pitcher might normally have, but when you have a defense like the Orioles have pitching to contact is not quite so horrible to contemplate), that we have no idea what Mychal Givens will bring to the table (especially when opponents make adjustments to him), and that for these reasons trading Hunter & calling up Givens is incongruous w/the mantra of trying to win this year. The trade was about the future (can Givens replace free agent to be Darren O’Day, which is why he’s getting a look, can Lake solidify a corner outfield position or should we look elsewhere, can we get something back on a player that most likely wouldn’t get a qualifying offer [Hunter]). All of the ifs and maybes are just that, guesses. Releasing Bud Norris & replacing him w/Givens makes sense & gives the team the roster flexibility that has been the biggest argument for the trade. That is not what happened. Trading Hunter was not about being better this year it was about potentially being better next year, and that is not a problem except that it goes directly against Dan Duquette’s stated goal for this season at the non-waiver trade deadline.
It’s Time for the Orioles Move Past Tommy Hunter – by Dave Stevenson (@BmoreDaveS)
Friends, O’s fans, Baltimorons, lend me your ears; I come to bury Tommy Hunter, not to praise him! The homers that men allow lives after them; The good is oft interred with their jokes; So let it be with Hunter.
I couldn’t have much more respect for Tommy Hunter the person. He bought me beers at Nobles after the AL East clincher. When I used to be a ballhawk, Hunter would interact with us and make things fun for everybody. He’s a wonderful reminder that baseball is just a game, and I think that’s a very valuable lesson that fans and players both need to realize every single day. That said, it’s extremely important to realize that Tommy Hunter the person has a miniscule (if existent at all) impact on the value of Tommy Hunter the pitcher. My opinion of Hunter the pitcher is much lower than my opinion of Hunter the person.
Tommy Hunter gave the Orioles a little over 2 seasons as a middle to high leverage reliever (though he was an awful closer). It wasn’t always pretty, but he got it done. My blood pressure rose every single time a fly ball happened. I kept quiet because Hunter was effective at what he did. This season, he has ceased to be effective, so I have ceased to keep my mouth shut about my multiple concerns about him.
Hunter has always been a pitcher that despite high velocity out of the pen, has never struck guys out at a reasonable rate. He tends to pitch to contact, as his 6.4 strikeouts per 9 innings with the Orioles shows. When you’re a starter, you can work with that if your control is perfect. When you’re a reliever, it’s much more difficult. Hunter proved that this season by allowing 11 of his 28 inherited runners score. That tends to happen when you don’t strike guys out.
This year, Hunter had a 3.63 ERA with the Orioles. That’s very replaceable. Now, will Mychal Givens replace that? Who knows. I think he has a very good chance to do so for several reasons.
First of all, unlike Hunter, Givens strikes guys out. In Bowie this season, the pitcher converted to shortstop converted to pitcher again had a strikeout rate of 12.58/9 innings, first among those with at least 50 innings. His 2.61 walks per 9 innings at Bowie is slightly high, but he misses a lot of bats so that can make up for the walks. Obviously AA is different from the MLB, but Hunter’s this season was 2.2 walks/9 innings. Givens’ ERA was a miniscule 1.79 at Bowie despite pitching in middle to high leverage situations on a regular basis.
So how’s that 12.58 strikeouts/9 innings going to translate to the majors? Let’s find a comparable. Austin Adams is a good one. In 2013, in the Eastern League, Adams had a 12.4 strikeouts/9 innings rate and a 4.7 walks/9 innings rate. This season? He has a 2.95 ERA in 16 games (21 1/3 innings) this season for the Indians. Is he a perfect comparable? No, but he’ll do because Adams was 24 years old, just like Givens is now. Givens is more polished than Adams and already has significantly better control. Having watched both Adams and Givens, if Adams can have success in the majors, I’d be willing to bet Givens can too, especially over a small sample size.
Will hitters adjust to Givens? Sure. However, there’s a pretty good chance that won’t be happening this season. He has a sort of deceptive release and his fastball has movement. If I had to list all the relievers who have had a two month sample size that was excellent, I’d be listing way too many names. Relievers are fickle, so I’m not going to bother predicting if Givens can go on a two month run. I think at worst, there’s little reason for me to believe that Givens isn’t capable of doing as well as Hunter, if not better.
I think Givens is more likely to succeed with leaving runners stranded than Hunter. The main reason for this is Givens’s ability to strike guys out. In those situations, BABIP can kill you. Just ask Jim Johnson. You know what the best way to avoiding death by BABIP is? Taking BABIP out of the equation by striking guys out. That’s what Givens has done in the minors and the majors (albeit in a small sample size).
Is Givens a sure thing? Nope, far from it. However, is he less of a sure thing than a guy who simply cannot be relied on even in low leverage situations (Hunter)? Is he less of a sure thing than a guy who Buck doesn’t trust? Buck Showalter loves his guys to a fault, so it’s quite telling that he trusted Chaz Roe in higher leverage situations than Tommy Hunter. Hunter has minimal value to the Orioles at this point if Buck can’t trust him. Buck doesn’t trust him and I can’t blame him. Givens has the potential to be a very special arm down the stretch for the Orioles. For the Orioles to make any noise in the playoffs, their bullpen is going to have to be lights out. Hunter did not help the pen be lights out. Givens has the potential to help the bullpen be lights out.
As my religion teacher in high school once told me:
“You can either be mediocre or great. If you want to be content, be mediocre. If you want to be great, you have to take risks.”
Would you rather be content with Hunter or (potentially) great with Givens? I know my decision.