Johan Santana Is No (Orioles) Magic Bullet

Johan Santana is hurt, but he’s hurt on the major league roster. This, as they say, is progress. Buck Showalter has strongly hinted that Santana will join a six-man rotation when he makes it to the majors.

I guess this settles the question as to who gets bumped from the rotation when Santana gets his chance. The outstanding questions then are as follows:

Does Johan Santana have anything left in the tank?

C’mon, let’s be real. Nobody can know how much the 35-year old has left in him. After two shoulder surgeries, he’s not the same guy he was early in his career – and not just because of Father Time. The Orioles’ best hope is that he can be better than the sum of the bottom of the rotation (or the top, depending on the week). You’ve heard it all at this point: Johan Santana has gotten his fastball consistently into the 86-90 mph range, and his change-up has that 10 mph differential from the fastball that the club was looking for, before bringing him to Baltimore. Great, so he’ll join the club once his rehab starts in the minors are over. Then what?

My guess is that Santana will not hold up all season, at least not at a high level. He may provide some key innings for this club in the in July and August, but fans who are hoping that Santana will be the silver bullet that saves the Orioles’ season are setting themselves up to be disappointed. This deal has a chance to be very good for the Birds, but that’s the best-case “lightning in a bottle” situation. Excuse me, but I’m not holding my breath.

Will a six-man rotation work for the Orioles?

The supposed benefit is that it gets more talented pitchers into the rotation, and it allows the guys in the rotation additional rest between starts. Sounds good on paper, but how does it work in practice? Think about it: if you’re unwilling to drop a starter from the rotation to make room for Johan Santana, instead you’re going to give them fewer starts. So you want fewer starts for Miguel Gonzalez, who has put together four consecutive quality starts? Or Wei-Yin Chen, who failed to show improvement on five days rest in 2013, compared to the standard four. Bud Norris has been the Orioles’ sole dependable starter. Fewer starts for the $50MM man Ubaldo Jimenez? Or “ace” Chris Tillman?

The problem of adding Johan Santana to the club would be a lot easier if we had five great starters, and were adding a sixth. Or if we had one standout terrible starter who needed to be replaced. Instead, we have a pitching staff filled with mediocrity, to which we’re adding an unknown. One that I doubt will pan out.

At least the Orioles are trying something. And there have been plenty of times when the O’s have proven me wrong. Here’s hoping they keep it up.