Saber-Rattling: Hitting in the Clutch
Welcome to the newest feature on Bird’s Eye View called “Saber-Rattling”. Here we’ll try to break down the numbers used by Sabermetricians to answer questions on the Orioles, but also gain an appreciation for the statistical analysis possible in baseball. This section will attempt to balance statistics with real life observation to come to a sane conclusion.
After Saturday’s game (0-8 RISP), Orioles fans were once again asking the question, “Why can’t this team hit with RISP?” The Orioles have had one of the better offenses in the league during the season, but they do seem to hit these droughts periodically where the clutch hits don’t seen to come. Do the numbers back this up?
Sabermetricians don’t particular like to focus on RISP. They believe that its better to break it out further to determine the impact of the AB during the course of the game. As such, they breakdown hitting into the following categories that often time apply to hitting with RISP.
- WPA – Win Probabiliy Added http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa/
- LI – Leverage Index http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/li/
- Clutch – http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/clutch/
- RE24 – Runs Above Average for 24 Base/Out States http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/get-to-know-re24/
- REW – RE24 coverted to wins http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/glossary/
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The key categories to focus on for hitting are RE24 and REW. The Orioles rank 9th in MLB in these categories. Unfortunately, they fall behind a few notable teams including the Red Sox, Rays, Athletics, Tigers, and Indians. Does this stats have a direct correlation to win performance? Well no based off the fact the Angels and Mariners are both in the top 10 as well.
Past that though, the Orioles do represent strongly in two other categories both in WPA and Clutch. If the Orioles truly are under-performing this season, how can they can be at the top of these stats for the season? Breaking out the stats the typical names come to mind: Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Manny Machado. But those names that may surprise you include: Nate McLouth, Chris Dickerson, Steve Pearce, and even Brian Roberts. The Orioles have had contributions throughout this roster. If Matt Wieters and/or Nick Markakis can blossom in August, this team will be one of the best in baseball.