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What’s Left on the Shopping List?

At FanFest last weekend, Dan Duquette said that he was hoping to finish out filling his team’s needs by Christmas. That doesn’t mean much – half of what team executives say at this time of year is posturing, anyway. The main event is clearly The Chris Davis Watch, but here, a week out from Christmas, is a look at what is left on the Orioles off-season shopping list.

To get a look at the needs, we should consider what the team will look like by Opening Day: five starters, seven relievers, and thirteen position players. Here’s a list of my 2016 roster projection:

roster

This is the part where you yell at the screen and tell me I’m an idiot. Don’t worry – I assume this is what happens while I talk on the podcast. I’ll break down my “logic” below, so you have more ammunition.

Starting Pitching

I have the open rotation spot marked as “TBD (external),” which means that the solution won’t come from within the organization. Look, I like Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright as much as the next  guy, but they are not major league starters at this point in their career. They might be better candidates if they were the fifth guy in an already stacked rotation. But this rotation has enough question marks that it requires a real solution – not a hope and a prayer.

Next, you could consider Vance Worley, who the Orioles claimed off waivers in October, and signed to a $2.6MM deal, to avoid arbitration. This sum might make you think that Worley is definitely in the Orioles’ plans, but please remember that they paid Everth Cabrera $2.4MM last off-season, and ended up being designated for assignment. Let’s call Worley a “maybe,” but I hope he’s not penciled in as the answer.

The top of the starting pitching market is expensive. Hey – even the second-tier starting pitching market is expensive. Do not expect the Orioles to be major players. There was no way the Orioles were going to shell out enough money to be competitive for David Price or Zach Greinke. It is doubtful that the Birds would even get serious about reuniting with Wei-Yin Chen. But don’t just take my word for it:

Assume they will be priced out of the Mat Latos and Mike Leake markets, too. So dream smaller. The Orioles have to.

Looking down the list a bit, there are a couple of names that stand out. The first is Yovani Gallardo, with whom the Orioles have been linked all off-season. I must admit that my feelings for Gallardo may be colored by the 10th inning, pinch hit double he delivered to defeat the Orioles in 2014. I’ll try to set that aside, and note that Gallardo turned down a qualifying offer from the Rangers, which means that he’ll cost a pick for the team that signs him. He is a durable (180+ IP) ground ball pitcher If Gallardo can be had on a three-year deal for a reasonable price (does that exist anymore?), it wouldn’t be the end of the world, but not my first choice.

Then there is Scott Kazmir. I beat the Kazmir drum a couple of years ago when he was ultimately taken by the Indians as a reclamation project. Kazmir has resurrected his career, and as a lefty, would fill the Orioles’ rotation nicely. Granted, Kazmir is a fly-ball pitcher who has given up his fair share of homers, but he has also put up back-to-back impressive seasons. Over the last two years, he has averaged 30 starts and had a sub-4.00 ERA, with FIP to match. Kazmir is my choice on the “best of the rest” list that the Orioles will be working from in 2016. Oh, and this one doesn’t cost a pick.

Buck Showalter is quick to point out that the big difference between a 96-win campaign in 2014 and an 81-win campaign in 2015 was the starting pitching. The same group of starters faltered last year, despite the fact that a Cruz-less offense put up the same number of runs. The Orioles need another starter, and one that will make a difference. Here’s hoping their acquisition is a difference maker.

Relief Pitching

This is the easy one. I’ve listed the guys I expect to come north with the team. You have to consider Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, and Brad Brach to be locks. And I must say, that is a pretty impressive back end of the bullpen. Brian Matusz was tendered a contract, and will be the LOOGY on this team, for no other reason than to spite me. Of course, there is the annual talk of stretching him out to start in Spring Training, so hopefully that results in a trade. After two such seasons, I won’t hold my breath.

Dylan Bundy is out of options, so he will make the club in some capacity, if he is not hurt (again). My guess is that he will not be ready to take a rotation spot, and that he will be stashed in the ‘pen, as the Orioles determine whether he can become a rotation candidate in the future, or if he is another high draft pick who will spend his career in relief.

Then there are the guys with options. Mychal Givens was surprisingly effective in just 30 innings last year. He will spend some time with the club, and I expect he’ll be one of the seven best out of Sarasota. If not, Jason Garcia will certainly see time with the Orioles in 2016. After surviving the Rule 5 draft period, Garcia will be a valuable power arm that can be optioned. Exactly the type of weapon Buck Showalter values.

The last spot in the bullpen is labeled TBD (internal). The Orioles have plenty of candidates on the 40-man roster to fill this spot. Whether it be Worley, Garcia, Wilson, or Wright… there is no need for Duquette to spend his available resources on a reliever.

Position Players – The 400lb Gorilla

Chris Davis – will he, or won’t he? The Orioles want him. With owner Peter Anglos involved, the team has made a franchise-record offer to keep him in Orange and Black. And with all that… it might not be enough. The money in baseball has gotten insane, and it’s possible another team might overspend for the good that Davis provides.

He’s an above-average defender at first base, who also has the ability to play third base and corner outfield in a pinch. Oh yeah, he also hits the ball really hard. Davis has led the league in homers over the last three years, and boasts a 7.0 and 5.6 WAR season in recent seasons. When he’s not busy hitting one-handed home runs, he’s taking walks to boost his on base percentage.

Of course, then there’s the rest of it. He strikes out at an alarming rate. And we shouldn’t forget 2014. You know, that season in which he disappeared into the shift, ended with a 0.8 WAR, and was suspended 25 games for a amphetamines? Yeah. There’s that. Remember also, that Davis is in his year 30 season, and his power is doubtful to last the length of his contract. Davis, to be sure, is a risk. The question is, will whoever signs him be any happier with his contract than those handed out to other sluggers (Texeira, Fielder, Pujols, etc.) recently?

Still, he’s the premier power bat on the market. No matter how far we advance in our appreciation of baseball beyond the back of the baseball card, his sheer power will always be highly sought. Someone will sign him, and that team will pay a premium for it. Will Davis be satisfied with the Orioles’ offer?

 Position Players – Outfield

If Davis signs elsewhere, the Orioles have worked to replace him on the roster. They traded the Pride of Pigtown to acquire Mark Trumbo, who can play first base, and hit majestic home runs. Trumbo is a right-handed addition to an already heavily right-handed lineup, but he’s a decent stopgap. In the event that Davis does sign, Trumbo can technically play the outfield, but that is not where you want him. Trumbo should be considered a first baseman or designated hitter.

The Orioles signed Korean outfielder Hyun-soo Kim to a two-year contract. It sounds as though he is projected to play left field, as his arm strength will keep him out of right at the major league level. His on-base capabilities will probably slot him at the top of the lineup, and we hope to hear plenty of this  throughout the season:

That leaves right field. I listed the open spot as “TBD – external,” because I don’t believe in any of the in-house candidates. With respect to both Dariel Alvarez and Henry Urrutia, I haven’t seen enough to convince me that either one can be a starter on a contending major league club. In addition, the Orioles re-acquired L.J. Hoes, and signed Nolan Reimold to a one-year deal. Consider me equally dubious that either one of them can be ant more than a fourth outfielder. Lastly, the team chose Joey Rickard in the Rule 5 draft. As I’ve noted previously, Rickard may be a useful piece, but should not be looked to as “the answer” in right.

Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Orioles cobble together another outfield with no sure-fire solutions. With no way of knowing whether Hyun-soo Kim’s game will translate to MLB, and no way of knowing if any of the internal candidates will deliver on the promise they’ve shown, the Orioles could be looking at another substandard season in the outfield. It could be De Aza/Lough/Snider 2.0.

The O’s are reportedly interested in some higher-profile outfield free agents, having been linked to both Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes. Forgive my pessimism, but I don’t think the Orioles are in either player’s league. They will simply command too much money on the open market. The Orioles have already stated that they will not simply funnel the $150MM Chris Davis fund into another player. Though the joy of Jake Mintz at the prospect of a Yo-to-the-O’s signing would be enough in my book, I simply don’t think the Orioles go there.

Instead, look for a player who can be had at a reasonable rate, whose upside is better than the internal candidates. Leading that charge is Denard Span, who has been linked to the Orioles all off-season. His health concerns aside, Span could feature at the top of the Orioles lineup and play a slick right field. His best days are clearly behind him, but he would be serviceable.

 Position Players – Role Players

One trend I’ve noticed in Duquette’s management of the 40-man roster is that he is jettisoning AAAA infielders. This is either an indication that J.J. Hardy‘s health leaves him confident that he won’t need shortstops on the Norfolk shuttle, or that these guys are a dime a dozen. I lean to the latter. Orioles fans should keep in mind that the middle of the diamond experienced health issues last year. Though there’s no reason to panic, Duquette should be keeping an eye on the waiver wire and the minor league free agent market to bolster the organization’s middle infield depth. If for some reason Jonathan Schoop or J.J. Hardy isn’t a full go in April, Ryan Flaherty is going to need some backup to fill those shoes.

Then there is the 25 spot on the roster. I’ve labeled this simply “TBD.” Maybe it comes from someone on the inside. Perhaps this is how Jimmy Paredes makes the club. If Paredes can level off the peaks and valleys in his hitting, he would be an excellent part-time player. Unfortunately, he is equally frustrating when he is cold as he is intriguing when he is hot. It also doesn’t help that Paredes best defensive position is “please don’t hit it here.” He is apparently working hard in the outfield in winter league, but I would call him a long shot to make the roster.

The other alternative, is to sign a free agent. Perhaps this is the way Steve Pearce sneaks back onto the roster. Pearce is another guy whose hot-and-cold routine has made him indispensable at times and forgettable at others. The one advantage Pearce has is his versatility, and the fact that manager Buck Showalter is comfortable with him.

Then again, this last spot might be best served held in reserve for a last-minute decision. That would allow the Orioles to bring the best “also ran” in camp to Baltimore, or to scoop up the best roster casualty from another organization.

Making a list, checking it twice.

So that’s it. The list is as follows:

  • Chris Davis
  • A starting pitcher
  • A real right fielder
  • The 25th man

I wish all of  you, Dan Duquette included, the best luck in the last-minute rushing around of the holiday season. Here’s hoping that Orioles fans don’t wake up to find coal in our stockings.

 

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